We reached consensus at COP30 amid the intense tropical heat, torrential rain and thunderstorms – and even a fire! – at the gateway to the Amazon, in Belém do Pará, Brazil.
So, what happened?
This COP brought us a new word: mutirão, a Brazilian concept that refers to a collective effort, where a community comes together to help someone or to accomplish a shared task. Brazilian hosts named their draft package of proposals the «Global Mutirão: Uniting Humanity in a Global Mobilization Against Climate Change» to symbolize cooperation, solidarity and joint action to deliver a shift from negotiation to implementation.
The final Mutirão decision reaffirms the Paris Agreement mitigation goal of keeping warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. It also recognizes the central role of the best available science, as provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in guiding effective climate action and policymaking – a baseline that is vital to restate in a world where misinformation continues to spread.
Let’s face it: we are not on track for 1.5º degrees celsius.
However, there has been meaningful collective progress towards the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. In 2015, global CO₂ emissions were increasing by almost 2% per year; today, that rate has slowed to around 0.3%. As a result, projections that once pointed to a 4°C rise by 2100 before the Agreement was adopted have shifted: we are now on course for an increase of roughly 2.1–2.5°C, assuming countries fully implement their climate-transition plans — their nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
This year, countries were expected to submit updated – and more ambitious – 3.0 NDCs. So far, 122 have done so, while 75 have yet to submit, with the existing updates covering around 75% of global emissions. Portugal’s NDC is aligned with that of the European Union, which has set a target to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by between 66.5% and 72.5% by 2035 (relative to 1990 levels). This contribution applies to all 27 EU member states collectively and covers all sectors of the economy. Portugal has indicated that it will meet the most ambitious end of this range.
Estimated emissions based on previous unconditional NDCs, additional emission reductions from new unconditional NDCs, and emissions’ gaps for 1.5ºC and 2ºC Source: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Tracker | 2025 NDCs | NDCs 3.0 | Climate Watch
At this COP, Brazil put forward plans for “roadmaps” to transition away from fossil fuels – a proposal supported by more than 80 countries – and to halt and reverse deforestation, backed by over 90. The intention was to set out a clearer pathway for how countries would deliver on pledges made at earlier conferences. Notably, at COP28 in Dubai two years ago, Parties agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, which account for 75% of all emissions. However, Brazil’s roadmap proposals met strong resistance from oil-producing nations, and in the end the opponents prevailed. As a result, the final agreement contains no reference to the roadmaps, leaving no new ambition on either fossil fuels or deforestation.
On fossil fuels, following some last-minute drama in the final plenary, Brazilian COP President André Corrêa do Lago announced, under his own responsibility, the “Belém Transition Compass”, a vehicle through which these issues may be taken forward.
In addition, the «Global Implementation Accelerator» set on the Mutirão Decision – a two-year, Presidency-led process – will work to close the gap to 1.5°C and establish a pathway for transitioning away from fossil fuels and halting deforestation.
In parallel, Colombia, together with the Netherlands, launched the «Belém Declaration», which brings together a coalition of countries recognizing the urgency of accelerating the transition away from oil, coal and gas, and committing to stronger international cooperation to achieve this (it already has the initial support of 24 countries, including Spain; a number expected to grow as COP30 concludes). The First International Conference for the Global Phase-out of Fossil Fuels will be held in Colombia, in April 2026 to advance cooperation, deepen ambition and build a global roadmap.
These initiatives will naturally carry far less weight than if they had been included in the main agreement, which would have had the backing of all participating nations. Even so, they indicate a way forward.
So, does this mean climate action will increasingly depend on coalitions of willing countries and sectors, rather than a single, unified global framework? This might as well be the case, with alliances that lead to issues advancing at varying speeds. But the Mutirão Decision does, nonetheless, acknowledge that “the global transition towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development is irreversible and the trend of the future”. And this “no way back” decision is very relevant.
On forests, COP30 did see some commitments to protecting forests: Brazil launched Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), its flagship global performance-based forest fund aimed at delivering large-scale finance for standing and restored tropical forests. The TFFF was designed to support countries with tropical forests in preserving them rather than deforesting them.
The TFFF is intended to reach around 125 billion USD, combining public and private funding (blended finance). Brazil has committed 1 billion USD, and Portugal also committed 1 million euro. In total, the fund has seen 6,6 billion USD pledged so far, and the World Bank was confirmed as TFFF’s trustee and host.
Another important initiative was the launch of an Ocean Task Force, led by Brazil and France, which brings the oceans into a global mechanism designed to accelerate the integration of marine solutions into national climate plans. It builds on the Blue Nationally Determined Contributions (Blue NDC Challenge), which encourages countries to set targets for ocean protection in their NDC updates. Portugal has joined this coalition, whose purpose is to support countries in incorporating blue carbon and other ocean-related dimensions into their NDCs.
Also, within COP30’s Action Agenda, the “Belém 4X” initiative promotes international cooperation to quadruple the use of sustainable fuels by 2035, using 2024 levels as the baseline.
Another collaborative initiative worth highlighting is the global carbon-market coalition – proposed by Brazil and endorsed by the European Union and other countries such as China –, which aims to facilitate the exchange of experience on Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) systems, carbon-accounting methodologies, and the rules governing the potential use of high-integrity credits in regulated carbon markets.
But mitigation is only one part of the puzzle. The final Mutirão decision also includes provisions on:
- Climate finance: mobilizing US$1.3 trillion per year by 2035 for climate action in developing countries.
- Adaptation finance: tripling adaptation finance by 2035, from 40 to 120 billion US dollars (USD) annually, including a strengthened Loss and Damage Fund.
- Equity, Human Rights – including rights of Indigenous peoples, local communities, children, persons with disabilities –, gender equality, intergenerational equity.
- Nature: recognizing the linked crises of climate change and biodiversity loss, and the importance of protecting nature, terrestrial and marine ecosystems for effective climate action.
- Just transition: adopting the Just Transition Mechanism.
Consensus on the final text has been reached, and this is by no means insignificant in the times we are living in – the risk of failing to reach an agreement was real, and would have represented not only a dangerous setback at a moment when we are witnessing a revival of climate denial, but also a serious blow to the credibility of multilateralism.
Is this result sufficiently ambitious, considering the scale of the challenge we face? It is not. But it is a compromise in a step-by-step process, and it means that cooperation is alive in an era of great structural challenges to multilateralism. And that’s good news.
We may always proceed at different speeds. And that’s okay. It is not perfect – true –, but then again, the perfect is the enemy of the good.
It is the consensus decision that brings us all together, a precious accomplishment (in a fragmented world) we better not abandon – for the sake of all.
So, what will it be: outrage or optimism?
I chose (yes, it’s a choice!) to be optimist.
Be the hopeful.
Angela Lucas, Advisor at the Center for Responsible Business & Leadership
