The Art of Strategic Decision- Making (in modern times)

CATÓLICA-LISBON
Friday, June 6, 2025 - 16:00

The evolution of the Art of Strategic Decision-Making has created new challenges for decision-makers.

In the 5th century b.C., Chinese general Sun Tzu wrote The Art of War to instruct future strategists. This set of lessons immortalized the author as one of the best thinkers and strategists in history. His book contains a set of advice and reflections separated by skills that a General, a Strategist, a Decision Maker must master to be victorious (it is important to remember that Sun Tzu never lost a battle).

Although we live approximately 2,500 years after Sun Tzu’s death and information is more accessible, most of the lessons we can learn from The Art of War, with minor adaptations, still apply today. However, there are two areas where the paradigm seems to have changed in recent decades: the – notion of time and the participants in strategic discussions.

First, the notion of time in strategic decision-making has changed dramatically. The short term has become very short, even immediate, while the medium and long term have merged into something much closer to the “old” medium term. The increase in the amount of information available and the speed with which it can be processed has led institutions to look at strategic objectives in a time frame of months, weeks, and even days, which was unthinkable in the previous millennium.

However, the excess of available information can lead to some paralysis due to the inability to choose the best source, but above all, there is a risk of losing the long-term sense, the strategic vision that guides decision-making in companies and public institutions and which, if neglected, will lead to a collapse caused by the high instability generated by the variation between small short-term successes and failures. As Sun Tzu said, “All men can see the tactics (short term) by which I conquer, but none can discern the strategy (long term) by which victory was conceived.”

Secondly, the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) models has led decision-makers and strategic thinkers to introduce a new interlocutor – an advisor who accumulates centuries of experience in seconds. However, rather than warning about some of the risks of sometimes biased information sources or the embryonic state of these models and the consequent lack of long-term experience, I prefer to emphasize that any good decision-maker who uses AI will have their reasoning and assumptions truly tested and will therefore refine their strategic thinking before discussing it with other decision-makers.

Herein lies one of the great advantages of technological developments – forcing decision-makers to think about their problems and expose them clearly so that the models can provide a satisfactory answer.

Consider and deliberate before making a decision” is another of Sun Tzu's teachings that, with AI, is accessible even to the most solitary of decision-makers.

In short, the evolution of the Art of Strategic Decision-Making has created a set of new challenges for decision-makers who, on the one hand, have access to valuable allies in technology, but on the other hand, must carefully consider whether the pressure for immediate results compromises the vision and sustainability of companies and institutions. Let us remember once again that Sun Tzu lived 2,500 years ago, not six months ago, and that his lessons are still very valuable after two and a half millennia.