Luís Janeiro, professor at Católica-Lisbon School of Business and Economics, writes this week about the cons of building the new airport in Alcochete and the alternatives.
The expression “the serpent’s egg” applies to situations that, although they may seem minor and harmless at first, can have disastrous consequences in the future. Almost always, only the passage of time allows us to see, in hindsight, the signs of “evil in the making”.
And this is precisely what we are now realizing with José Sócrates’ airport in Alcochete; after being elected with an absolute majority, he wanted an airport that would be linked to hum, it had to be in Margem Sul, in an unprecedented location and very, very large (7,500 ha). It was only taken into account the building of the airport, and, at the time, the associated waste/loss was underestimated, the magnitude of which is now known:
− Avoidable Chelas-Barreiro bridge, adding 50km to the Lisbon-Oporto motorway, new 7,500 ha shooting range, and new military runway at BA Montijo (conflict with Alcochete runways).
− Damage caused by the Alcochete HUB being the furthest from the center in Europe.
− caused by the Chelas-Barreiro bridge lowering the clearance height in the seaport basin from 70 to 42 meters.
− Affects vital environmental resources: certified forest (logging) and the largest national water reserve.
– Affects the country’s defense by closing the strategic Alcochete shooting range. See the May/June 2008 issue of Força Aérea magazine. “Mais Alto”, for more information about its important role:
With a highly diversified and little-known activity, it is rare to find a day when you cannot hear the firing of light and heavy ground weapons or the passing of aircraft dropping training or live ammunition. The CTA [Alcochete Shooting Range] is currently reaching record levels of use. By far the highest in the last seven years.
To give a rough idea of the type of training that this unique infrastructure in Portugal provides, in 2007 it was used by ground forces from the three branches on 300 of the 365 days of the year, and national and foreign aircraft used 465 slots, meaning that more than 900 aircraft operated on the Alcochete air-to-ground firing ranges.
The Alcochete development reaches the point where, in Bergman's film “The Serpent's Egg,” it is said that through its thin membranes one can discern the already perfect reptile.
In José Sócrates' time, the projection was modest; even one (1) lane would suffice. So, it was a matter of doing a few calculations and immediately talking about four parallel runways to whet the appetite, taking care to downplay the investment so that it would not be so hard to “swallow.” The decision was made quickly, and with a debt of €128 billion, José Sócrates decided on Alcochete in January 2008.
A few months later, the financial crisis hit (Lehman Brothers bankruptcy) and, going against the tide, Sócrates accelerated, awarded the Alcochete four-lane master plan, opened the tender for the largest European bridge, and in 2010, hit a brick wall.
The “serpent’s egg” is
When the PSD/PP (Passos Coelho) came to power, the debt was already €180 billion and the country was in financial rescue. The government buried the NAL [New Lisbon Airport] and, to pay the country's bills, privatized ANA and enshrined the “Portela + 1” path in the contract, delegating the search for alternatives to VINCI.
For the expected demand (345,000 movements), two “Portela + 1” models were positioned, as follows: i) HUB Portela + Montijo with converging runways and ii) innovative HUB Alverca-Portela merger with parallel runways (∆ 4.5km). In April 2019, VINCI ruled on Alverca with a simple paragraph: “proximity to the AHD-Lisbon runway does not allow simultaneous operation, as the minimum distance of 5 NM (9.3 km) for simultaneous and independent runways is not met.” and, in a lion-like position, indicated Portela + Montijo as the only possible solution (without a plan B), which was ratified at the end of the year. And then the pandemic happened.
The egg is unearthed and the reptile (Alcochete airport) is still alive
The negative effect of the pandemic is intense and demand is falling in the medium and long term; however, once again bucking the trend, the four-runway airport is back and the “appointment assessment” is being reintroduced.
By the end of 2022, debt will reach €280 billion (double that of 2007) and ANA revenues (which existed in 2007) cannot be counted on; however, the appointed commission recommends Alcochete!
The VINCI paradox of falling demand and infrastructure-2025 more than doubling
In its post-pandemic projection, renowned specialist Altitude indicates 288,415 movements (previously 345,000) at the end of the concession and, even twenty years later, only 329,888 movements, which is below what Mumbai Airport-1 runway achieved (346,617 movements) last year.
a) Let's look at VINCI in Great Britain: it tells the government that its Gatwick-1 runway airport can go up to 330,000 mov (still quite a lot for Lisbon-2082) and proposes a second runway for departures only to reach 390,000 mov.
b) Let's look at VINCI in Portugal: before the pandemic, for 345,000 mov, it agreed with the government on two converging runways-72 mov/h, and after the pandemic, for 288. 415mov, it proposes the most powerful European hub (4,390m air channel-150mov/h), well above Paris (3,760m air channel-120mov/h).
We need to get back down to earth
The current PSD/PP government faces conditions as challenging as those faced by Passos Coelho: the pandemic has reduced air travel demand, Europe is at “war,” the current debt of €280 billion is under pressure from military spending, and there is no ANA revenue. Caution is needed with regard to debt, and cost-benefit choices must be prioritized to avoid hitting another wall.
The contract stipulates that, until the binding NAL agreement is reached, the concessionaire must determine whether mobilizing existing airports to meet expected demand is more efficient and less costly; however, VINCI has only put forward its hyper-muscled NAL.
The greater the efficiency/savings of a solution, the more justified its exclusion must be.
Being more efficient means that tasks are performed in the best possible way, with the least waste of resources, time, and effort for the expected demand (329,888 movements with a margin of twenty years).
The Alverca-Portela merger has a capacity of up to 120 million movements per hour, does not require the Chelas-Barreiro bridge, optimizes the common entrance to the north of the Lisbon-Porto and Lisbon-Madrid AV, does not affect operational military infrastructure, and will be operational in just three years. It is also less expensive − saving the country €15 billion − and can be leveraged without public money.
In 2025, there is no doubt that the parallel Alverca and Portela runways will operate independently and that the merger will be more efficient and less expensive than the new VINCI alternative. Will this be the moment when VINCI finally admits its mistake from April 2019?
Luís Janeiro, Professor at Católica-Lisbon School of Business and Economics
This opinion piece is a collaboration between Renascença and Católica-Lisbon School of Business and Economics.