Economic Analysis

Covid-19 risks 17 to 31% of jobs in the private sector of the Portuguese economy (only in Portuguese)

Joana Silva, Kamil Kouhen, Madalena Gaspar and Martim Leitão

Sectors which have stopped or nearly stopped for reasons of public health (highly sensitive sectors), including restaurants and bars, lodging, travel and transportation, personal services, entertainment and leisure, wholesale and retail commerce, and sensitive transformative industry, represent around 20% of both structured employment and of the payroll in Portugal, which represents 3,9% of GDP. Overall, the direct and indirect effect of the contraction of highly sensitive sectors risks between 17 and 31% of private employment in the Portuguese economy. Therefore, these are sectors and jobs which will probably fare worse in recovering from losses associated with the Covid-19 pandemic.

Pandemic hits Portugal just as the economy and job market were reaching their pre-2008 levels (only in Portuguese)

Joana Silva, Kamil Kouhen, Madalena Gaspar and Martim Leitão

The COVID-19 pandemic comes at a time when economic and job market growth were getting back to their pre-crisis levels. The recent past in Portugal has been marked by low growth rates and severe economic crises. The average growth rate for the Portuguese economy was below 1% (World Development Indicators). Portugal was in a recession in 2003, was particularly affected by the financial crisis in 2008-2009 and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis of 2011-2013.

Pandemic should heighten socieconomic inequality in Portugal, especially for the younger generation (only in Portuguese)

Joana Silva, Kamil Kouhen, Madalena Gaspar and Martim Leitão

The Covid-19 pandemic will likely accentuate inequality in Portugal. The difficulties posed by the crisis will be felt the most by the most vulnerable sectors of the population. Young and less educated workers, who usually have less secure jobs with less pay, appear to be more fragile to this shock, with smaller companies and least developed regions taking the strongest losses. Evidence from past crises shows that the effects for these types of workers, companies and regions last the longest.

Following the Portuguese economy in real time

João Borges de Assunção and Pedro Afonso Fernandes

The information contained in forecasts made by multiple experienced entitites by March 30th suggest that April's instant GDP should be around 3% to 18% of the levels of the fourth quarter in 2019.

Does Corona virus choose between social classes? How a health crisis enhances inequality between rich and poor

Rita Coelho do Vale

In what respects participants expectations of how satisfied will they be with their life when pandemic is over, results suggest a lower level of satisfaction among poorer ones, compared with any of the other groups.

A third of the Portuguese saw their income go down (opens in PDF; only in Portuguese)

Ricardo Ferreira Reis and the team at CESOP - Católica Sondagens

Almost one out of every four workers is now working from home and a third of them saw their income go down. This study performed during the COVID-19 pandemic showcases the Portuguese responses and changes in lifestyle during the crisis.

The percentage of Portuguese "staying home" peaked at the start of the second state of emergency (opens in PDF, only in Portuguese)

Instituto Nacional de Estatística with the support of Miguel Godinho de Matos

In its Síntese INE@COVID-19 from May 25th, the Instituto Nacional de Estatística includes data on regional population mobility based on data from the "Data for Good" Facebook initiative, showing that around 60% of the population was staying home at one point.

The potential effect of oil prices on Portuguese GDP (only in Portuguese)

Miguel Gouveia

On the one hand, GDP is expected to drop by around 10%, but the reduction of oil prices may have a positive impact of close to 1,2% on GDP.

The financial situation of the banking sector (only in Portuguese)

João Luís César das Neves

The 2009 crisis only had a dramatic impact on five of fifteen countries: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and, less so, Spain. Italy and, worse, Portugal still require serious attention.

National debt by percentage of GDP (only in Portuguese)

João Luís César das Neves

Our country which, in 2013, had the sixth highest national debt in the world has improved its standing, as we have been told. What we are usually not told is that this improvement has only brought us to ninth place worldwide.

Gross and net public debt (only in Portuguese)

João Luís César das Neves

When we joined the Euro in 1999, our gross debt was already up to 122% of GDP, and net debt at 32%; at the peak of the crisis they were 260% and 124% respectively; and today, after years of recovery, gross debt is at 215%, well over twice as much as we produce, and net debt equals our product at 104%.

Family savings in Portugal (only in Portuguese)

João Luís César das Neves

As soon as the economy began to recover in 2013, our savings rate went back down, and in 2018 it hit a historical bottom of 6.4%, having risen since then to only 6.6% in 2019. Covid-19 arrives to a country with a very low savings rate.