The last Socialist government commissioned one that reached 150 million passengers and VINCI delivered to the current government one of 62 million. Which one is right?
In projects leveraged by private actors in a free market, costs are certain and revenues are uncertain, and the private sector cannot resort to taxes to compensate for any shortfall relative to estimates.
Private projections incorporate risk with rigor and accountability, while in state decisions responsibility tends to disappear. That is why politicians of the moment can casually claim projections are conservative, knowing that those who follow will be left holding the problem.
The specific case of PROCURA in expanding Lisbon’s airport capacity
The starting scenario: in 2007, Lisbon Airport handled 13.4M passengers and the new Athens airport 16.5M. At the time, the HUB Ota 2050 projection was 42.5M, endorsed by LNEC in the choice of the HUB Alcochete 2007 and later ratified in its 2009 Master Plan with a slight increase to 43.8M.
In 2017, a Socialist government led by António Costa, under clear skies, signed an agreement with VINCI for the HUB Portela plus Montijo based on PROCURA 2062, the end of the concession, estimated at 64M by the international specialist Altitude. In 2020, the pandemic emerged and, following internal political shifts, despite an even more uncertain environment due to the invasion of Ukraine, the plan reverted to the four-runway mega airport and, to justify it, a national company without aviation experience was commissioned to produce a projection aligned with that scale, reaching 150M.
At the same time in 2022, EUROCONTROL estimated that over the following thirty years growth would be similar and modest for Portugal and Spain, and higher for Greece. The projection assumed that after recovering pre-pandemic traffic there would be stabilization followed by continuous slowdown, with average growth just above 1%, leading Lisbon 2050 to 45 to 50M.
Following António Costa’s resignation, a PSD-led government took office. When it approached VINCI to move forward with the mega airport, Altitude revised its PROCURA study in light of the pandemic, Russia and the distant location of Alcochete by rail at 60 km, reducing it from 64M to 52M. However, VINCI presented a four-runway airport even more powerful, capable of reaching 200M.
What does the current government do in the face of this disparity between PROCURA and VINCI’s supply: the four-runway airport is to be maintained, and VINCI is asked to reassess its projection.
Barcelona airport supports the Lisbon 2082 PROCURA projection of 62M
Altitude estimated Alcochete 2062 with 52M and, to mitigate the gap, extended the horizon by twenty years and still only reached 62M.
In real airport performance in southern Europe in 2025, Lisbon at 36.1M and 2.8% growth and Barcelona at 57.5M and 4% growth have recovered and are stabilizing, while Athens at 34M and 6.7% growth will soon surpass Lisbon, something that has not yet happened only because it emerged later from its severe financial crisis.
In the Catalan capital, a major tourist hub, the population will reach 7M compared to Lisbon’s 3.2M, and its airport with 1,150 hectares and two parallel runways has capacity for 84M, calculated as 440,000 movements times 190 passengers, which is sufficient given a long-term PROCURA forecast of up to 80M.
Today, Lisbon, with an airport closer to the city center than Barcelona’s, 5 km versus 10 km, has 21.1M fewer passengers and grew less last year, 2.8% versus 4%, which means that in the future, with a larger population and tourism base favoring Barcelona, the 62M PROCURA projection for distant Alcochete may even be optimistic, as the gap between the two cities narrows only from 21.1M to 18M.
For Lisbon-62M, a single high-performance runway is enough, with a reserve runway
It is official. VINCI, shareholder of Gatwick Airport with one runway, agreed at the end of last year with the UK government on its expansion with a base capacity of 340,000 movements, which with an additional departure-only runway located 210 meters from the current one rises to 390,000 movements.
The same system in Lisbon at Alverca, with one runway, would handle 65M and, if the reserve runway is used, would reach 74M, which is sufficient well beyond the end of the century.
The government faces a dilemma with two very different projections
VINCI can only reiterate the 2082 PROCURA projection of 62M because after its calculation the attack on Iran also occurred. If it were to change projections now on request, Altitude would suffer significant reputational damage to its credibility.
The current government faces a dilemma: either it accepts the 62M forecast and abandons the four-runway Alcochete mega project, or it assumes ownership of the 150M projection and leaves future governments and generations to bear the consequences if it proves lower.
The deadlock is resolved by the innovative Fusion HUB that would be number one globally
The Fusion HUB Alverca for long-haul and Portela for city traffic, 550,000 movements and 105M, would be the most complete and competitive in accessibility and its low time and cost of access to the city center, with Campo Grande at 3 km, would induce PROCURA 10% higher than distant Alcochete, increasing it from 62M to 70M.
This solution would take only three years to become operational, as it would not require changes to military organization, would not need the Chelas Barreiro bridge and would make use of existing infrastructure. It would save the country more than €15 billion and would not require artificially inflating PROCURA.
Luís Janeiro, Professor at Católica Lisbon School of Business and Economics