The NECEP – CATÓLICA-LISBON Forecasting Lab has been awarded the 2025 Forecast Accuracy Award, a distinction granted by Consensus Economics, one of the most prestigious international institutions in the field of economic analysis. Founded in 1989, the organisation compiles, on a monthly basis, forecasts and outlooks from more than one thousand economists worldwide, establishing itself as a benchmark in monitoring macroeconomic expectations.
The Forecast Accuracy Award recognises a select group of economic forecasting specialists, assessing their ability to accurately anticipate two of the most relevant macroeconomic indicators: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and inflation, as measured by consumer prices, in the economies they follow.
The award is based on a comparative evaluation conducted over a 24-month period, which compares participants’ submitted forecasts with the actual observed outcomes. In addition to the accuracy of individual estimates, the analysis also values consistency over time, distinguishing the institution that achieves the lowest average deviation from final results.
The economic results for 2025 highlight this performance. The Portuguese economy recorded GDP growth of 1.9% and an inflation rate of 2.3%, figures that NECEP’s forecasts consistently anticipated with a high degree of proximity. This alignment reflects the methodological robustness and analytical quality underpinning NECEP’s work.
Established in 2005, NECEP is part of the CATÓLICA-LISBON Centre for Applied Studies and is dedicated to monitoring the evolution of the Portuguese, European and global economies, producing forecasts focused on the time horizon most relevant for decision-making. During the period covered by this award, the work of the unit benefited from the active contribution of Pedro Afonso Fernandes as Chief Economist, as well as Carlos Rondão, João César das Neves and Miguel Gouveia.
According to João Borges de Assunção, founder and coordinator of NECEP, this recognition validates the centre’s mission: “to provide its subscribers and both the Portuguese and international communities with the most accurate possible assessment of the conditions of the Portuguese economy and its dynamics, which also requires close monitoring of the global economy.” He further emphasises that, despite the rigour of the forecasts, “uncertainty is always an inherent component of this exercise,” underscoring the importance of maintaining a continuous and well-informed reading of economic developments.