NECEP - Católica Lisbon Forecasting Lab is communicating its estimates for the Portuguese economy today.
Overall, the 3rd trimester will have been below expectations with 5% growth, which is historically high but insufficient to compensate the losses from the 1st semester of the year.
In the third quarter of 2020, the Portuguese economy should have remained 13% below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019, the last normal period, still without the effects of the lockdown and social distancing measures. The corresponding year-on-year change in GDP might have been negative (-12.5%), with a quarter-over-quarter growth around 5%, that is, between 4% and 6%. Thus, the recovery from the sharp drop in the first semester might have been only partial and slightly below expectations.
Additionally, NECEP estimates an increase in the unemployment rate from the previous 5.6% to 7.8% in the third quarter as a result of the attachment to the labour market of inactive people who loosed their jobs during the lockdown, in addition to unemployment directly related with the recession already installed in the country.
You may access the summary for this report here.