Life and society have cycles. One of the most beautiful cycles is the start of a new academic year in schools and universities, a time of new beginnings for some and the start of an extraordinary adventure for others. This week, I had the pleasure and honor of welcoming 1,200 new students to the Católica Lisbon School of Business and Economics. Eight hundred of these are new Master's students, 75% of whom are international students from more than 50 countries. Four hundred are new undergraduate students, half of whom are already enrolled in the international Bachelor's degree in Business Administration or Economics, all taught in English, and many of whom are also international students. Therefore, more than half of the new students are international, coming to live in Lisbon for several years, purchasing the premium service that higher education represents and becoming lifelong members of the CATÓLICA-LISBON alumni community, which was born in Portugal but is now a global benchmark.
The example of CATÓLICA-LISBON is not unique, and Portuguese management schools have distinguished themselves through their ability to attract and retain international students, competing with the best management schools in the world. This path has also been followed in other scientific areas, particularly by the Catholic University, which is able to attract international students in a growing number of areas and courses.
With the recent announcement of the results of the first phase of placements in the national competition for access to public universities, there has been much talk about the 16% drop in the number of applicants to less than 50,000, as well as the 12% drop in the number of placements to around 44,000 and, finally, the huge increase in remaining places from 5,000 to over 11,500. This highlights an overcapacity in the public education system of more than 10% and a huge difficulty for polytechnic institutions in the interior of the country to fill their places. The national demographic situation does not allow us to anticipate a significant increase in demand, so the system will have to consolidate and/or internationalize, as has already happened in the areas of Economics and Management.
But in the age of accessible information and artificial intelligence, is a college degree still valuable? It seems to me that the labor market will split into two segments with strong demand — one is the segment that involves working and interacting with the natural world and with people — craftsmen, technicians, builders, caregivers, teachers, personal services, tourism-related services — all of these professions are difficult to automate and will see growing demand for services, even due to the shortage of qualified employees. In work related to agriculture, industry, or the liberal professions, tasks will become increasingly
automated in the age of artificial intelligence. Many positions will disappear, while others will see their productivity increased by new AI tools. The skills, knowledge, and wisdom developed in higher education can help its graduates be in the group that sees their productivity increased (and consequently their market value increased) and not in the group that risks becoming obsolete.
Thus, the Portuguese higher education system faces two enormous challenges — one is to ensure its updating and modernization in the age of artificial intelligence — so that its graduates are proficient with new tools. The other is to develop an effective internationalization process that opens up the excellent teaching and academic research carried out in Portugal to Europe and the world. Looking at the relationship between supply and demand in the public system by subject area, it is worth noting the overcapacity in Engineering with 2,716 surplus places, Business Sciences with 1,781 surplus places, and Personal Services with 1,333 surplus places, three areas that account for more than half of the 11,500 surplus places. Areas such as Computer Science, Life Sciences, and Physical Sciences and Health follow closely behind, representing a further 2,500 places. These are all areas where there is strong demand for students in the international market, which represents a huge opportunity for the Portuguese university system to become a competitive export sector, with enhanced quality and skills.
Developing this process requires greater accountability from universities so that they can manage their own revenues and invest in internationalization processes in areas where they have market potential. Knowing that if they do not do so successfully, they will have to adapt their offering to the reduced domestic market and, in some cases, undergo profound restructuring and consolidation processes. For polytechnic institutions and those in peripheral regions, the challenge is even greater, as they will have to develop smart specialization processes that bring them closer to the regional business ecosystem and its research, innovation, and training needs, rather than trying to imitate the more generalist strategies of public universities in large cities.
With each new cycle that begins, it is time to think about the challenges and opportunities that the world presents us with. For universities and their professors, staff, and students, this is a brave new world.
Filipe Santos, Dean of CATÓLICA-LISBON