In Portugal, as in the rest of the world, the transportation sector is the main cause of urban air pollution and the only sector in the EU whose greenhouse gas emissions exceed 1990 levels. Globally, transportation accounts for 16% of total emissions, but in Portugal it is responsible for 30% of greenhouse gas emissions. Within this sector, road transport is the largest emitter, accounting for 72% of CO₂ emissions. Decarbonizing the automotive sector is thus a necessary and ongoing revolution, with electric mobility playing a crucial role in reducing emissions both nationally and globally.
The electric vehicle (EV) market is growing rapidly in Portugal. New business models have emerged, and mobility behaviors have evolved. The price of electric vehicles has decreased, and consumer anxiety regarding recent technology has lessened. Public policies offer incentives and have adjusted regulations; road vehicle taxation now encourages the purchase of lower-emission cars, focusing increasingly on EVs. Meanwhile, the charging network's capacity has improved. However, road transport emissions in Portugal remain high, risking a slow transition. This study analyzes the current state of electric mobility in Portugal, the main challenges faced, and how public policies can accelerate fleet renewal and achieve decarbonization goals.
At PROSPER – Center of Economics for Prosperity, Católica-Lisbon, we conducted a study about the state and direction of electric mobility in Portugal. We found that despite considerable progress—with around 42,000 EVs sold in 2023, a 92% increase from 2022, and approximately 130,000 fully electric vehicles in the national fleet—Portugal will not meet its carbon neutrality targets by 2050 even if all new vehicles sold from now on are electric. That happens because the vehicle fleet renews slowly, with an average age of 14 years and 25% of vehicles over 20 years old. At the current pace, road emissions would decrease by only 39%, far short of the 98% reduction goal. Heavy vehicles face greater challenges: in 2023, only 5% of heavy vehicle sales were EVs, highlighting the urgent need for expanded charging infrastructure.
Public transport usage is low, with only 14% of the population using it daily. Doubling this rate to 28%, as seen in Germany, could reduce transport sector emissions by up to 12%. Moreover, high EV prices are a significant barrier; fully electric vehicles are on average 30% more expensive than combustion vehicles in Europe. In Portugal, the average price of the ten cheapest EVs is €30,000, higher than in the Netherlands (€25,000) and Germany (€24,000).
Another problem is the high usage costs. While home charging is 60% cheaper than fueling a diesel car, public charging costs are equivalent to combustion vehicles (diesel). Moreover, 42% of households lack access to parking, preventing home charging. The charging market's complex structure and lack of price transparency complicate matters. Three major operators control most charging stations (57%), and in 32% of municipalities, there is only one operator. This concentration suggests a need to allow charging operators to sell electricity directly to users. Reviewing the sector's organizational model could increase competition, expand the charging network, and reduce prices. Ensuring transparency in charging prices and allowing bank card payments at all stations would enhance user experience.
Infrastructure for fast and ultra-fast chargers is insufficient. Although charger numbers have increased 5.6 times since 2016, EV numbers have grown 34.5 times in the same period. There are 231 municipalities without public fast or ultra-fast charging stations. Regional disparities exist, with high-traffic areas lacking adequate charging facilities. On average, there are seventy-seven users per fast charging point in Portugal, more than double the EU average, and 712 users per ultra-fast charging point. Charger distribution aligns with population density, concentrating in Lisbon and Porto, but leaves other high-traffic areas underserved.
Our study concludes that more policy measures are needed to achieve emission targets. Increasing support for purchasing EVs when replacing old, polluting vehicles is crucial. Facilitating EV use through incentives like priority lanes, toll subsidies, and parking benefits can encourage adoption. Reviewing the sector's structure to boost competition can expand charging station availability and reduce prices. Ensuring price transparency and allowing bank card payments at charging points will enhance user convenience. Prioritizing the installation of fast and ultra-fast chargers, especially for long-distance travel, is essential. Promoting access to quality public transport offers a sustainable alternative to individual vehicle use.
Have a great and impactful week!
Joana Silva
Professor at CATÓLICA-LISBON